During the Lincean conference held on February 12 at the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, Daniele Franco presented his report, "Science, Economics, and Politics in the Climate Transition." The former Director General of the Bank of Italy and former Minister of Economy and Finance analyzed the complex interplay between scientific evidence, economic sustainability, and political decision-making in the face of the climate crisis.
His reflection begins by noting that global average temperatures have already risen by approximately 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, making 2024 the hottest year on record. According to IPCC models, without a drastic reduction in CO2 emissions, temperatures could rise by 2°C to 4.5°C by the end of the century. Such an increase would have devastating effects on agricultural production and regional habitability, potentially triggering mass migration.
To meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement and achieve climate neutrality by 2050, global emissions—which have surged from 5 billion tonnes post-WWII to 38 billion tonnes today—must be radically reduced. For Italy, this transition requires additional annual investments of approximately 2% of GDP, or roughly €41–42 billion. This commitment arrives at a challenging juncture, as high public debt and the rising costs of an aging population place significant strain on the health and pension systems.
Franco also highlighted a critical obstacle: the “intertemporal preference” inherent in democratic systems, which tend to prioritize immediate benefits over environmental gains that primarily favor future generations. Furthermore, because the climate is a global public good, its protection demands voluntary cooperation among nearly 200 nations. This effort is increasingly complicated by geopolitical tensions and the necessity of involving major emitters alongside rapidly growing regions, such as India and various African nations.
In conclusion, Franco emphasized that the solution to the climate trilemma lies in heightened public awareness, the guiding role of science, and a pragmatic political approach. The transition must be driven by research, innovation, and flexibility, all while safeguarding industrial competitiveness and fostering electoral mechanisms that reward leaders committed to the well-being of future generations. Despite the challenges of wealth distribution and high fiscal costs, he reiterated that there are no viable alternatives to reaching net-zero emissions if we are to preserve the stability of the planet.